The Internet, the media, and even discussions at coffee shops and diners are filled with this year’s election. It seems that we get daily (hourly sometimes) updates on who is ahead and why. And the Countdown to 270 has turned into a Slow Drip Water Torture. This is why we here at Committed Conservative have refrained from trying to analyze the election or make any sort of predictions on the 2024 presidential election.
That is until now!
I wanted to start off with letting you know that this analysis will not drill down into the weeds of mountains of poll data and the like. It’s boring and doesn’t add much to the discussion. Since I am a political scientist and I “geek out” on this stuff, I recognize MOST of the citizenry doesn’t really care. They just want to get to the point. That being said, I will highlight a couple of data points which lead me to the conclusions I have.
First, if President Joe Biden was still in this race, this article would be two paragraphs long. And the result would be the prediction that President Donald Trump wins by a landslide. But since the Democrats decided to stage a “coup,” and then install someone who has never, ever been voted for in a race for the presidency, we must instead evaluate the election in regard to Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris.
Second, it is too late to go into the merits or deficits of the two candidates. For whatever reasons they have, people have made up their minds and the voting has already commenced. In fact, we may have a record number of early ballots that have already been cast (more on that later). This analysis will just cover what we see currently, and what is likely to happen on Tuesday (and the Ballot Counting Jamboree Part II that will likely last for days) and who the next President of the United States will be.
Now, let’s dig into a few data points to help support my conclusion.
DATA POINT 1: The Polls
There are so many polls, with so many different conclusions, that at this point prognosticating on the results using the polls alone is a fool’s errand. The metrics used by polling firms are all suspect and likely leave out portions of the electorate. It’s why some political sites such as Real Clear Politics (RCP) try to use the aggregates in order to see what all of the polls are saying together. What RCP is showing nationally is that this race is a dead heat when it comes to the national popular vote. Some polls have Harris anywhere from +1 to +3. Other polls show them tied. Others show Trump +1. All within the margin of error. This means, the KEY factor in the national popular vote will be each campaign’s Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort. The campaign that can get their supporters to the polls, with numbers like I just stated, will win the national popular vote.
DATA POINT 2: The Electoral College
But much to the chagrin of many on the left, we do not elect presidents by popular vote. Our Founders, in their great wisdom, understood many factors (we won’t go into a dissertation here on why the Electoral College (EC) exists or should exist) and used those to design a system to bring checks and balances on the will of the people. In 2024, the fact is that in order to become president, a candidate has to get at least 270 electoral votes (NOTE: there is a way to tie… in which the Congress would decide who is president and vice-president… but that is also a discussion for another time). In our system presidents are elected by states, not the people. As we look at who the winner of the popular vote is, it is likely the actual winner of the popular vote may not be the winner in the Electoral College. And we have seen this before (Trump won in 2016 in the Electoral College and lost the popular vote, for example).
With the national popular vote so much closer for Trump than it was in 2016 and 2020, what does this say about how things will go in the Electoral College? Well, I believe it means that this is a bad sign for Harris. It means that Trump is polling much closer to Harris than he did with Clinton or Biden. Does that mean he will win? Not on that data point alone. But if Harris was to be the clear favorite going into tomorrow, I suspect she would have to be leading in the national popular vote… and she is not.
The other part I want to highlight in regard to the Electoral College is that MOST of the states, in almost everyone’s opinion, are already a lock for one candidate or the other. Trump is not going to get California’s 54 electoral votes and Harris is not going to get Texas’ 40 votes. This election would be a complete surprise (and likely blow out) if one of them did that. Instead, this election will come down to seven states (maybe eight). And if the polls are anywhere near correct, it will likely come down to one key battleground state.
DATA POINT 3: Other Key Numbers
A few key numbers I have seen that add to what I have stated above. First, we have around 80 million voters who have already cast their ballots. This is a HUGE early turnout. In past years, that would mean almost assuredly a Democrat victory, as Democrats have usually been the ones who voted early. How about this year? The latest numbers from yesterday show that 41% of the early ballots are from Democrats and 39% from Republicans (with the rest either being unknown or independents). That puts Trump and Harris almost dead even in the number of early ballots, which signals to me that Trump supporters are not staying home (remember what I said earlier about GOTV). The fact, like the national popular vote, that Trump is tied with Harris in early voting is not a great sign for the Harris campaign. She SHOULD, in a normal year, be well ahead of Trump in early ballots cast.
Another key number is this… many polls show that the percentage of people that say that the direction of America is positive is around 28%. Please understand that NO party in our history, which was currently in power, won the next election with a 28% positive direction stat.
A final quick number is this… it appears that black men are not coming out in the numbers needed by Harris AND the ones who are, it appears Trump may be getting over 30% of the black male vote. Which would be unprecedented in modern times. This is likely why you have seen President Barack Obama out deriding black men for not wanting to vote for a woman, and why you see ads out there telling men that they can vote, and no one has to know who they voted for. This has to be a HUGE concern at the Harris campaign headquarters.
DATA POINT 4: Road to 270
As I stated above, I believe there are seven (possibly eight) states that are in play tomorrow. They are Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Based on recent polls, we MIGHT consider New Hampshire in play but I highly doubt these polls. I will concentrate on the seven that are truly in play. With all of the other states going where they have historically gone or are likely to this time, the following map represents the start of the Road to 270.
I want to look really quick at what I believe are the states out of these seven that I believe will not be as close as people are stating, even though the polls are close. I believe North Carolina will go to Trump and Michigan will go to Harris. Which leaves us with the following update.
Now, the hard part begins. Where does Harris get the additional 30 votes needed, or Trump gets the 35 points need, to cross the finish line? Well, for this, I am finally going to look at the polls and what appears to be happening in several of the remaining five states. And a quick note… this is likely what the Harris campaign is worrying about because out of those remaining five states, three of them are leaning heavily towards Trump.
Nevada: The election in 2020 had Biden leading Trump by 3.3% the day before the election, In 2016, Trump was ahead of Clinton by 0.8%. The current polls hold Trump at 1% over Harris, which is about a four-point shift towards Trump. With that, I am picking Nevada to go to Trump.
Arizona: In 2020, Biden was ahead by 0.9%. Trump was ahead of Clinton in 2016 by 4%. The current polls hold Trump in the lead by 2.5% which is not as healthy as 2016 but shows a clear lead. Trump gets Arizona.
Georgia: The numbers are somewhat similar as Arizona in the State of Georgia. In 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump in Georgia by a razor-thin 0.2%. Trump was ahead of Clinton the day before the election in 2016 by 4.8%. Right now, the polls have Trump ahead by 1.7%. Which again, is VERY close and means Georgia COULD go to Harris, depending on turnout. But based on where things are headed, I am going to put Georgia in the Trump column.
Nebraska (2): Nebraska has a weird setup. It has five electoral votes, but one of its votes by law is only for one metropolitan area. That area is LIKELY to vote Democrat. We will give that one vote to Harris.
With these three, Trump is in my estimation, knocking on the door of 270, as you can see in the map below.
And now the hard part… picking the winner!
These final two are so close that it may be days after the election before we have any clue where they will end up. I believe the next state I will cover, while is VERY close, is likely to go to Harris.
Wisconsin: In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin with a HUGE 6.5% margin. In 2020, he lost Wisconsin by 6.7%, which was probably the biggest turnaround of any state. What will the voters do in Wisconsion in 2024? As volatile as it has been in the last two elections, Wisconsin will likely be close this time. Current polls have Harris up by just 0.4%. So, like Geogia for Trump, Wisconsin can be won by her opponent, but I highly doubt it. I am choosing Harris for the win in Wisconsion.
Which leaves us with the FINAL map of where things should sit Wednesday morning as we have to wait out the ballot counting in Pennsylvania.
Where Pennsylvania goes, so goes the election. Let’s drill down really quick on the Keystone State. First, the previous numbers. In 2016, Clinton was ahead of Trump by Trump by 2.1% the day before the election (although Trump ended up winning PA). In 2020, Biden was 2.6% ahead of Trump the day before. Current polls have Trump ahead in PA by 0.3%. That is about a 3-percentage point swing towards Trump.
We also have a lot going on under the surface in Pennsylvania (and to be honest, in others places also but these ESPECIALLY affect PA). First, the Republicans have gained ground by half the number of new voters they registered, compared to 2020. Second, a larger Hispanic population is showing an uptick in support for Trump over Harris. And lastly, as I stated earlier, black males are lukewarm towards Harris, and a larger portion than the GOP has seen in decades of black men are choosing Trump in the polls. This does not bode well for Harris, as to win Pennsylvania she needs to dominate in the urban areas of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. And if a good portion of that electorate won’t vote or is choosing her opponent, Pennsylvania may go back to Trump as it did in 2016.
As I stated above, in 2016, the polls had Clinton up by 2% the day before the election. And yet Trump took Pennsylvania the next day by 0.7%.
Many other factors I didn’t discuss here may sway the vote, such as the national abortion debate and the fact that many women are voting for Harris to be the first woman president. These outliers could move a state that is very close in the other direction. We will not know if they did until all of the ballots are counted.
With all of that, I came here to make a prediction. And in a few days (or weeks) we will see if I am right. Harris could steal a state or two that I said went to Trump, and then PA wouldn’t matter and Harris comfortably wins. Trump also could steal a state like Wisconsin which means even if he didn’t get PA, he would still be headed back to the White House. So many IFs and BUTs.
The Prediction
I’m just going to call this with Trump following in the footsteps of President Grover Cleveland becomes the second president to return to the White House following a loss.
